NWS Area Forecast Discussion
988
FXUS64 KFWD 211135
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steady warming trend expected late weekend through early next
week, with mild temperatures persisting through the remainder
of the week.
- Many areas will see measurable rain on Tuesday (Christmas Eve),
with the best rain chances near and east of the I-35 corridor.
- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be rain-free, but storm chances return
on Thursday and will linger through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Early morning surface observations and visible satellite imagery
show temperatures have fallen to near or below freezing in many
areas across the region this morning as clear skies and light
winds prevail. No significant adjustments have been made with this
morning`s update other than to incorporate present observations
and trends.
12
Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/
Situated between upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West
and a slowly progressing upper trough centered over the eastern
U.S., northwest upper-level flow prevails over North and Central
Texas tonight. At the surface, high pressure settling into the
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains has brought about light
winds and clear skies. Under the influence of enhanced radiational
cooling, temperatures are on track to fall into the upper 20s and
lower 30s across the entire region by daybreak.
Expect the airmass to modify quickly as the surface ridge axis
shifts east before mid-day and southerly winds return. After a
cold start, the first day of astronomical winter will see near
average high temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 50s
to lower 60s. A mid-level shortwave embedded in the northwesterly
flow aloft will emerge from the northern Rockies early this
morning, however this wave is unlikely to squeeze out much more
than some passing cirrus as large scale forcing will be weak and
there isn`t much moisture to speak of (PWATs ~0.30"). Low
temperatures will be as much as 5 to 10 degrees warmer Saturday
night into Sunday morning as moisture returns in the lower levels
and cloud cover increases.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024/
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/
With the return of southerly low level winds, a warming trend is
expected Sunday and Monday. Monday afternoon will see temperatures
10-15 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
Additionally, a resurgence of low-level moisture will result in
warmer overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night, with low
temperatures in the 50s.
A surface low will eject from the eastern Rockies into the
Southern Plains late Monday as a mid-level trough digs into the
Central CONUS. Modest warm air advection ahead of the system will
result in the development of showers across portions of North and
Central Texas Monday evening. As the surface low drags a cold
front towards the area on Tuesday (Christmas Eve), showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of the
front. Many locations will see measurable rain on Tuesday, though
the best rain chances will be confined to areas near and east of
the I-35 corridor. At this time, we`re still looking at a low
potential for a few strong storms in Central Texas during the
afternoon. However, the parameter space does not particularly
favor an organized severe threat, as instability will be limited.
Embedded areas of heavy rainfall are likely given ample moisture
will be in place, but the progressive nature of this system will
preclude any significant threat for flooding.
The cold front will bring an end to rain chances from west to east
Tuesday night, with Christmas Day expected to be rain-free. There
won`t be a significant push of cold air behind the front, with
temperatures only a few degrees cooler (in the low to mid 60s)
Wednesday afternoon.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday as
another system traverses the CONUS. While this set up could
potentially be more favorable for a low-end severe weather threat,
there are too many unknown variables this far out. Ensure you
monitor the forecast over the next several days as these details
come into focus.
Otherwise, mild temperatures will continue through late next week
with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows in the
40s to low 50s.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the period
with the potential for a few cirrus clouds passing over the area
this afternoon. Light northeasterly winds this morning will shift
to the southeast over the next few hours with speeds remaining
around 5-10 kts.
12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 39 61 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 58 39 63 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 49 31 54 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 55 34 61 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 53 35 58 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 55 39 61 50 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 55 35 60 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 57 39 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 60 37 66 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 60 36 66 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
